NFL Week 14 Bets:
We are rather deep into the NFL season, as it is now Week 14 and there are only five weeks left of the regular season. Six teams are on a bye this week, so we’ve got 13 games to think about and a lot of games that have pretty competitive lines, but aren’t the most compelling matchups.But, every game becomes compelling if you have some kind of action on it and there are some good betting opportunities in that regard as we stare down another week in the NFL.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12/4, 11:15 a.m. PT
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-6, 45)
1 p.m. ETLast week was a big setback for the Dolphins. They lost to the Packers on Thanksgiving and watched as the Browns gave a game away on Monday to the Broncos. Miami’s already slim playoff hopes took a huge hit, but this is still a team playing at a very high level right now.
The Dolphins are fifth in EPA/play on offense over the last five weeks and 11th in EPA/play on defense. With no margin for error, they can pick up a half-game on the idle Broncos this week and I think they’ll be able to do it against the Jets.
New York has had one of the league’s worst defenses since Robert Salah was fired to begin Week 6. Since that time, the Jets are 31st in EPA/play on defense and 31st in Dropback EPA. They are 29th in Rush EPA, so that is a positive, I guess, but still among the four worst marks in the league in that span.
As we know, this offense is bad, too. Aaron Rodgers is a shell of his former self and there are talks each week about benching him. Miami is back at home in the more seasonable temperatures with no choice but to win every game going forward. The Jets really have no reason to win any games other than pride, but I don’t think they’ll be competitive against a Miami team that is playing at a top-10 level the last five weeks.
Pick: Dolphins -6
Buffalo Bills (-4.5, 49.5) at Los Angeles Rams
4:25 p.m. ETJosh Allen and the Bills take their show back out on the road to take on the Rams. Getting out of frigid, snowy Buffalo seems like a pretty good idea at this time of the year and the expectation is that the offenses will have a pretty day on the fast track at SoFi Stadium.
I am not so sure. Over the last five weeks, these defenses rank sixth and seventh in EPA/play on defense. The Rams are 30th in third-down conversion rate on offense this season and the Bills have been very methodical with their offensive drives. It has worked, as they’ve racked up 2.82 points per drive, but they rank 27th in offensive plays.
Josh Allen’s tremendous ability to take care of the ball and Buffalo’s deliberate style limit the number of possessions available in games. The Bills defense is tied for the sixth-fewest plays against. Opponents have only scored on 33.1% of their possessions against Buffalo and the Bills are tied for second in takeaways with 24.
Even though Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in six straight games, I think that string could come to an end here, as the Rams defense leads the NFL in Hurry% per Pro-Football-Reference and that could slow down the Bills a little bit more. The Rams have also done a pretty good job of taking care of the football this season.
Pick: Under 49.5
